In a blog post from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, economists argue that AI optimism could hinder productivity and act as a news shock that shapes household and business decision-making. The authors, Fed economists Miguel Faria-e-Castro and Serdar Ozkan, explain that when households see a news shock like AI adoption, they interpret it as a sign of a future pay raise, spending more today on the assumption that more money will come down the line. The same logic holds true for businesses: If you were to buy into the promise of miracle innovation—cutting the cost of labor and boosting productivity—you’d increase investment in that product. All of that enthusiasm leads to inflation in the short term as demand outpaces supply.
以DeepSeek为例：其虽稳居国内AI应用前五，但开源特性导致竞争对手持续提供免费服务，使其对C端用户的商业化空间极其有限，不得不转向B端市场。其他独立厂商若想突破困局，唯有打造显著优于巨头、且采用闭源模式的尖端模型——这种可能性虽非绝无，却实属渺茫。
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